一周展望：“超级央行周”黄金多头再爆发或崩盘在即，数据潮猛美指有望重回104

本周一系列强劲的美国数据让人们对美联储首次降息的时机产生疑问。

周五美国三大股指均收低。

纳斯达克指数和标准普尔指数连续两周下跌，道琼斯工业平均指数连续三周下跌。

然而，在降息乐观情绪的推动下，欧洲股市连续第八周上涨，这是自 2018 年以来最长的连涨纪录。

比特币从历史高位回落，而美元指数录得自一月中旬以来的最大周涨幅。

受到加息传闻提振的日元表现一直令人失望。

周五美元兑日元上涨逾0.5%。

金价四周来首次下跌，跌破每盎司2160美元。

俄罗斯、乌克兰以及巴以之间的冲突再次升级。

原油本周上涨近4%，美油重回80美元关口。

值得注意的是，铜价突然爆发，伦铜11个月来首次突破9000美元，一周涨幅近6%。

新一周的市场大战即将打响。

投资者将迎来2024年迄今央行决策最密集的一周。美联储和日本央行将主导本次央行利率周，其影响力占全球经济近一半。

请坐稳并支持。

以下为新一周（均为北京时间）市场关注重点：

央行消息：美联储领衔超级央行周，黄金多头会再次爆发还是崩盘在即？

美联储：聚焦点阵图

周四凌晨2:00，美联储发布利率决定和经济预期摘要。

周四凌晨2点30分，美联储主席鲍威尔召开货币政策新闻发布会

美联储周四凌晨的决定和鲍威尔的新闻发布会无疑是最重要的。

投资者将能够探讨依然强劲的美国经济数据是否会导致美联储官员放弃降息意图，或者他们对今年三次降息的预期是否仍在轨道上。

美联储下周不会改变利率几乎已成定局，市场焦点集中在点阵图上。

美联储的最新预测可能会显示美国经济持续强劲增长。

接受彭博社调查的大多数经济学家预计，政策制定者将计划在 2024 年进行三次降息，第一次是在 6 月，但超过三分之一的人预计降息次数会有所减少，这会带来鹰派的惊喜。

Ian Lyngen, head of U.S. rates strategy at BMO Capital Markets, said: "The biggest risk next week is that the dot plot that is the global focus is showing a 50 basis point rate cut this year, not 75 basis points." It is worth noting. What's more, Friday's interest rate swap pricing showed that by December this year, the market expected an interest rate cut of less than 75 basis points. On the same day, U.S. economists at JPMorgan Chase updated their forecasts. They now expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 75 basis points this year, instead of the previous 125 basis points.

Commerzbank predicts that gold prices could hit a new record if the Fed's new forecasts and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at a press conference are interpreted as increasing the likelihood of a faster rate cut. Goldman Sachs believes that the most likely trend for gold prices in the near future is to enter another consolidation phase.

Analysts at Dailyfx said that if policymakers signal their intention to reduce interest rates, we could see bond yields and the dollar move higher. This should be negative for gold prices. Gold prices are managing to hold on to the support at $2,150. Bulls must aggressively protect this technical area to prevent selling pressure from escalating; failure to do so could trigger a retracement towards $2,085. In case of further weakness, the focus will be on $2,065. On the other hand, if the bulls regain control of the market and trigger a bullish reversal from current levels, the first level of resistance lies at the record high set earlier this month at 2195, with further upside raising concerns about the trendline near 2205. Resistance concerns.

Other central banks: Is the Bank of Japan imperative?

At 11:30 on Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia announced its interest rate decision; at 12:30, Reserve Bank of Australia Chairman Bullock held a monetary policy press conference.

On Tuesday, the Bank of Japan announced its interest rate decision (the specific time is to be determined); at 14:30, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda held a monetary policy press conference

At 16:45 on Wednesday, European Central Bank President Lagarde delivered a speech

At 01:30 on Thursday, the Bank of Canada released the minutes of its March monetary policy meeting.

At 16:30 on Thursday, the Swiss National Bank announced its interest rate decision

At 20:00 on Thursday, the Bank of England releases its interest rate decision and meeting minutes

The Bank of Japan's decision on Tuesday will be the most closely watched in decades as officials decide whether to end the world's last period of negative interest rates now or wait until April. Rengo, Japan's largest union, announced that it had secured a 5.28% wage increase, the largest increase in 30 years. According to Nikkei, the Bank of Japan’s main plan is to adjust short-term interest rates to a range of 0%-0.1%. Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities chief bond strategist said the Bank of Japan may abandon negative interest rates and yield curve control (YCC) next week given the stronger-than-expected outcome of wage negotiations. Taro Saito, director of economic research at NLI Research Institute, said that if the Bank of Japan remains on hold now, the market will become volatile and the yen may plummet.

Also on Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to keep its cash rate at 4.35% after inflation data for January came in below expectations. Investors will be watching to see whether the Fed maintains its hawkish stance or signals a possible shift in the next few months.

For Thursday's SNB decision, most economists expect it to be on hold, although two respondents in a Bloomberg survey expected officials to cut interest rates rather than wait for larger central banks to begin their easing cycles.

Bank of England policymakers will see new inflation data on Wednesday and the latest PMI data on Thursday before deciding whether to keep interest rates on hold. With consumer price growth slowing but still likely to remain well above the 2% target, the Bank of England is in no rush to ease policy. Observers are likely to focus on the outcome of the vote among officials on the central bank's monetary policy committee, which could see a tripartite situation emerge again between those who want to keep rates unchanged and those who support a rate cut or hike.

"After abandoning its tightening bias at its February meeting, we don't think the MPC would mind changing its guidance," Bloomberg Economics' Dan Hanson and Ana Andrade wrote in a note. "The tone may come in May." A bigger transformation.”

ING said the Bank of England is expected to reiterate next Thursday that interest rates need to remain restrictive for an extended period, suggesting it is too early to consider policy easing. Analysts at BNP Paribas continue to be optimistic about the pound, saying that if the Bank of England closes the door to interest rate cuts, it will support the pound.

Important data: The data tide is fierce, and the U.S. index is expected to return to 104

18:00 on Monday, Eurozone February CPI monthly rate/annual rate final value

Tuesday 20:30, Canadian February CPI monthly rate

At 15:00 on Wednesday, the German PPI monthly rate in February, the British CPI monthly rate in February, and the British retail price index in February monthly rate

Thursday 08:30, Australia’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in February

European trading on Thursday, France/Germany/Eurozone March manufacturing PMI initial value, UK March manufacturing/services PMI

Thursday 20:30, US initial jobless claims, US fourth quarter current account, US March Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index

Friday 07:30, Japan’s February core CPI annual rate

Friday 15:00, UK February seasonally adjusted monthly retail sales rate

Friday 20:30, Canadian January retail sales monthly rate

In addition to the central bank decision, next week's data wave will also be fierce. ING believes that the U.S. dollar index is expected to return to 104 before the Federal Reserve's decision. The U.S. dollar next week will be more dependent on data rather than the Federal Reserve's forward guidance. Regardless of whether Powell is hawkish or not, the recent strength of U.S. data will hardly encourage a massive sell-off of the U.S. dollar.

The Eurozone, which has recently been under pressure to cut interest rates, will release February CPI on Monday. Previously, as inflation in the Eurozone fell less than expected in January, which poured cold water on expectations of an interest rate cut by the European Central Bank, investors can pay attention to whether the data this time can live up to their expectations. Several members of the European Central Bank have expressed an openness to cutting interest rates in June, which has also been motivating European stock markets to rise.

Alex Cohen and Michalis Rousakis, FX strategists at Bank of America Research, said in a note that the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate cut should have a greater impact on foreign exchange markets than the European Central Bank's rate cut. Bank of America expects the U.S. dollar to weaken and expects EUR/USD to rise to 1.15 by the end of the year, from the current level of 1.0942.

Next week there will also be abundant data in the UK. The February CPI will be released the day before the Bank of England's decision. The importance is self-evident. The overall annual inflation rate is expected to drop to 3.6% from 4% in January. That would mark another two-year low, cementing a clear downward trend and keeping hopes of a rate cut alive.

Sterling has outperformed 92% of global currencies so far this year, supported by the idea that whenever the Bank of England decides to cut interest rates, it will be after the Federal Reserve. Obviously, if anything happens that causes the market to rethink this, it will send GBP/USD lower. The Fed may now be more cautious than the market expects, which may make it harder for GBP bulls to gain ground.

Dailyfx analysts said that the pound/dollar is currently vulnerable to selling pressure when approaching the psychological resistance level of 1.28, but bears tend not to push it too low and can focus on the support level of 1.26602. The callback support level of 1.24916 also continues to support the pound. A sustained break above 1.28 would be a very bullish sign and bring last July's peak back into focus.

Company financial report:

A number of heavyweight technology stocks will be released next week, including Tencent Holdings (00700.HK), Meituan (03690.HK), Xiaomi Group (01810.HK), China Mobile (00941.HK), PetroChina (00857) .HK), etc.; U.S. stocks such as Pinduoduo (PDD.O) and Xpeng Motors (XPEV.N) will also announce results. Another highlight next week is the Nvidia GTC Conference, which will be held simultaneously at the San Jose Convention Center and online from March 18th to 21st. According to NVIDIA’s official public account, more than 77 ecosystem partners and more than 25 partner robots will be unveiled at GTC to demonstrate the future development trend of the robot industry.

Market closing arrangements

On Wednesday (March 20), Japan-Tokyo Stock Exchange will be closed for one day due to the Spring Equinox.

NYMEX New York crude oil April futures are affected by the month shift. The last transaction on the floor will be completed at 2:30 on March 21, and the final electronic transaction will be completed at 5:00 in the morning. Please pay attention to the expiry month change announcement of the trading venue to control risks. In addition, the expiration time of U.S. oil contracts on some trading platforms is usually one day earlier than the official NYMEX, so please pay more attention.

Article forwarded from: Golden Ten Data

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