Western sanctions are just a step away, and Russia

Russia's seaborne crude exports have recovered about half of their losses after suffering a sharp decline in the previous week, despite growing evidence that sanctions are starting to hamper Moscow's oil supply chain.

The rebound came after maintenance work was completed at Russia's most important Baltic export terminal and storm-battered conditions at its main Pacific ports eased. Foreign media data show that the earlier suspension of these ports caused the average flow of Russian seaborne crude oil in the past four weeks to be slightly lower than Russia’s first-quarter export target.

Indian refiners, which became Russia's second-largest oil buyer after the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, will no longer accept crude oil from Russian state-owned Sovcomflot PJSC due to concerns about the risks posed by the recent intensification of sanctions. This appears to have resulted in several ships carrying Russian crude being blocked off the coast of India, while others were diverted towards China.

Additionally, none of the ships designated by the U.S. Treasury Department as violating G-7 price caps have loaded cargo since being added to the list of sanctioned vessels. Many ships have diverted to the Black Sea, while others are anchored near ports on Russia's Baltic and Pacific coasts.

However, overall Russian crude oil shipments have not yet seen any large-scale reductions, with the country's crude oil shipments increasing by about 360,000 barrels per day in the week ended March 24. With the number of shadow fleets willing to transport Russian oil reaching at least 600, there is still a large number of ships capable of keeping Russian oil flowing.

A rebound in exports has also boosted Russia's oil revenues. For the week ended March 24, Russia’s gross profit for crude oil exports recovered half of the previous week’s decline, rising from $1.48 billion for the week ended March 17 to $1.68 billion. Four-week average revenue also increased, rising by about $15 million per week to $1.62 billion.

Russian seaborne crude oil transportation volume (2022-2024)

Most of the backlog of Russian Sokol crude oil stocks that were previously rejected by Indian refiners has now been unloaded. All Sokol crude cargoes loaded so far this month have sailed directly to China. About 8.4 million barrels have arrived at Chinese refineries, of which about 3.5 million ended up back in India, with a cargo also delivered to Pakistan. There are currently about 5.5 million barrels of crude oil to be unloaded, half of which will also be shipped back to India.

Article forwarded from: Golden Ten Data

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