What stage is the bull market at? Is 2025 the time

Along with the historical high market trend of the AI ​​sector, the Game sector and the platform currency sector have both seen good gains. These sectors will continue to drive the development of related ecology. For example, the rise of the platform currency sector has led to the explosion of IEO-related tokens, such as ID, EDU, etc. In the bull market, as long as you do not play with contracts, there are opportunities.

This week’s related token unlocking data shows that there are a lot of ARB unlocks, about 2.3 billion US dollars have been unlocked, and the selling pressure will increase. According to Token Unlocks statistics, let’s take a look at this week’s large unlocks:

Moonbeam (GLMR) unlocked 3.04 million tokens at 8:00 on March 11, worth approximately $1.49 million, accounting for 0.36% of the circulating supply;

Aptos (APT) will unlock 24.84 million tokens at 6:00 on March 13, worth approximately $329 million, accounting for 6.73% of the circulating supply;

CyberConnect (CYBER) will unlock 886,000 tokens at 18:00 on March 15, worth approximately $10.51 million, accounting for 5.98% of the circulating supply;

Flow (FLOW) will unlock 2.6 million tokens at 8:00 on March 16, worth approximately $3.62 million, accounting for 0.17% of the circulating supply;

Arbitrum (ARB) will unlock 1.11 billion tokens at 21:00 on March 16, worth approximately $2.32 billion, accounting for 76.62% of the circulating supply;

ApeCoin (APE) will unlock 15.6 million tokens at 8:00 on March 17, worth approximately $35.57 million, accounting for 2.55% of the circulating supply.

现在牛市到了哪个阶段？

This time the bull market cycle has been obviously accelerated by ETFs. I think it is now in the transition stage from the initial bull to the middle bull market, but it has not yet entered the middle of the bull market.

In terms of funds, the market value of stablecoins has not shown a larger growth than the previous bull market. The growth tends to be slow, the leverage bull push is obvious, and the rotation market is obvious due to limited market funds. Therefore, it has not yet entered the acceleration stage in cattle.

There are only 40+ days until the halving, and some old mining machines will face shutdown problems. The current mining farm structure is also different from the previous halving. It is unknown whether there will be miners who will smash the market to collect mining machines at low prices this year. , after all, ETFs are prone to bargain hunting, and the risk of crashing is quite high.

At present, BTC's market value still accounts for 51%, and funds have not flowed into small coins in large quantities. This also shows that the bull market has not yet arrived. Now is a good time to invest in small coins.

The main contributors to the bubble in the previous round were the new concepts of Defi, NFT, and Gamefi, and this round of new narratives and concepts such as AI, inscriptions, modularity, L2, and re-staking are also very eye-catching. Projects are becoming more subdivided and innovative, and good new projects are emerging one after another. They are all quietly waiting for the arrival of incremental market funds, and the bubble has not yet blown.

除了关注着ETF的流入情况，还要继续关注

比特币最近这几天动不动就要见证历史，结果每次见证历史之后就会砸盘引起恐慌，随之而来的就是合约爆仓。目前从走势来看，这个位置阻力确实大，从市场操盘的角度来思考，也有暴力洗盘的可能性，因为如果这个位置补深度洗一下的话，创造历史的就会持续减少。

At present, from the 4-hour level, the market has encountered divergences at this position. The first divergence was the violent crash on March 6, the second divergence was on March 8, when the market crashed immediately after the new high, and the third divergence was The divergence was at 4 a.m. on March 11. Every time Bitcoin was pulled up, it was smashed down.

Although the differences are huge, the market is still very strong. Every time it falls, it will be pulled up instantly. But one thing is certain, that is, as the market continues to rise, the willingness to sell will also be very strong, so the risk will be higher. The bigger it is, of course it doesn’t matter for spot prices, it will be higher at the end of the year, but in the short term, contract players should pay attention to the risks.

The tracks that need to be adapted to this round of bull market:

In summary, the strategies currently being considered are as follows:

在BTC和ETH上进行更高的配置比率

Control the allocation ratio on old tracks such as Defi, Gamefi, Depin, and NFT

本轮出现新赛道上可以作为博Alpha的选择方向，比如：

Meme: The best medium for speculation. There will be conceptual renovations in each round and amazing wealth stories in each round. Therefore, it is also the easiest category of projects to understand and trigger circle-breaking communication.

AI: New web3 business category, external business hotspots continue

BTC ecology: including inscription assets, BTC L2, etc. The author is relatively more optimistic about the former, because it is a new asset category that has emerged in this round, and BTC L2 is actually the concept of Ethereum Rollup, which belongs to "old wine in a new bottle"

In terms of cycles, unlike previous bull market cycles where "the year after the halving is the main rise", the biggest year of the main rise in this bull market should be 2024, not 2025.

The past BTC halving years were 2012, 2016, and 2020. The current halving year is 2024.

In the first round of Bitcoin halving cycle, BTC rose by 186% in 2012, the year after the halving, and 5372% in 2013, the year after the halving. It was similar in 2017, so before the bull market cycle in 2017, BTC basically met the "halving" trend. A small increase before the halving, a big increase a year after the halving."

This pattern began to be broken in the last cycle. First, there was a considerable increase in 2019, the year before the halving (93.4%, higher than 40.9% in 2015), and then the increase was 273% in 2020, the year of the halving. , higher than the increase of 62.3% in 2021, the year after the halving.

The forward trend of this "up cycle" in this cycle is further obvious. BTC achieved a 147.3% increase in 2023, the year before the halving, continuing to exceed the increase in the year before the previous halving (2019). , and the first quarter of 2024 has not yet ended, BTC has already achieved an increase of nearly 60%.

There is a high probability that 2024 will be the main rising year of this bull market. Don’t delay and wait for the big rise in 2025. It may be a safer strategy to increase your position and seize the moment. 25 years should be the year of harvest for us to reduce our positions. .

Finally, I wish everyone a successful return from this bull market.

Create a high-quality circle

Mainly spot goods

I will share some content: Conditions as shown below:

Along with the historical high market trend of the AI ​​sector, the Game sector and the platform currency sector have both seen good gains. These sectors will continue to drive the development of related ecology. For example, the rise of the platform currency sector has led to the explosion of IEO-related tokens, such as ID, EDU, etc. In the bull market, as long as you do not play with contracts, there are opportunities.

This week’s related token unlocking data shows that there are a lot of ARB unlocks, about 2.3 billion US dollars have been unlocked, and the selling pressure will increase. According to Token Unlocks statistics, let’s take a look at this week’s large unlocks:

Moonbeam (GLMR) unlocked 3.04 million tokens at 8:00 on March 11, worth approximately $1.49 million, accounting for 0.36% of the circulating supply;

Aptos (APT) will unlock 24.84 million tokens at 6:00 on March 13, worth approximately $329 million, accounting for 6.73% of the circulating supply;

CyberConnect (CYBER) will unlock 886,000 tokens at 18:00 on March 15, worth approximately $10.51 million, accounting for 5.98% of the circulating supply;

Flow (FLOW) will unlock 2.6 million tokens at 8:00 on March 16, worth approximately $3.62 million, accounting for 0.17% of the circulating supply;

Arbitrum (ARB) will unlock 1.11 billion tokens at 21:00 on March 16, worth approximately $2.32 billion, accounting for 76.62% of the circulating supply;

ApeCoin (APE) will unlock 15.6 million tokens at 8:00 on March 17, worth approximately $35.57 million, accounting for 2.55% of the circulating supply.

现在牛市到了哪个阶段？

This time the bull market cycle has been obviously accelerated by ETFs. I think it is now in the transition stage from the initial bull to the middle bull market, but it has not yet entered the middle of the bull market.

In terms of funds, the market value of stablecoins has not shown a larger growth than the previous bull market. The growth tends to be slow, the leverage bull push is obvious, and the rotation market is obvious due to limited market funds. Therefore, it has not yet entered the acceleration stage in cattle.

There are only 40+ days until the halving, and some old mining machines will face shutdown problems. The current mining farm structure is also different from the previous halving. It is unknown whether there will be miners who will smash the market to collect mining machines at low prices this year. , after all, ETFs are prone to bargain hunting, and the risk of crashing is quite high.

At present, BTC's market value still accounts for 51%, and funds have not flowed into small coins in large quantities. This also shows that the bull market has not yet arrived. Now is a good time to invest in small coins.

The main contributors to the bubble in the previous round were the new concepts of Defi, NFT, and Gamefi, and this round of new narratives and concepts such as AI, inscriptions, modularity, L2, and re-staking are also very eye-catching. Projects are becoming more subdivided and innovative, and good new projects are emerging one after another. They are all quietly waiting for the arrival of incremental market funds, and the bubble has not yet blown.

除了关注着ETF的流入情况，还要继续关注

比特币最近这几天动不动就要见证历史，结果每次见证历史之后就会砸盘引起恐慌，随之而来的就是合约爆仓。目前从走势来看，这个位置阻力确实大，从市场操盘的角度来思考，也有暴力洗盘的可能性，因为如果这个位置补深度洗一下的话，创造历史的就会持续减少。

At present, from the 4-hour level, the market has encountered divergences at this position. The first divergence was the violent crash on March 6, the second divergence was on March 8, when the market crashed immediately after the new high, and the third divergence was The divergence was at 4 a.m. on March 11. Every time Bitcoin was pulled up, it was smashed down.

Although the differences are huge, the market is still very strong. Every time it falls, it will be pulled up instantly. But one thing is certain, that is, as the market continues to rise, the willingness to sell will also be very strong, so the risk will be higher. The bigger it is, of course it doesn’t matter for spot prices, it will be higher at the end of the year, but in the short term, contract players should pay attention to the risks.

The tracks that need to be adapted to this round of bull market:

In summary, the strategies currently being considered are as follows:

在BTC和ETH上进行更高的配置比率

Control the allocation ratio on old tracks such as Defi, Gamefi, Depin, and NFT

本轮出现新赛道上可以作为博Alpha的选择方向，比如：

Meme: The best medium for speculation. There will be conceptual renovations in each round and amazing wealth stories in each round. Therefore, it is also the easiest category of projects to understand and trigger circle-breaking communication.

AI: New web3 business category, external business hotspots continue

BTC ecology: including inscription assets, BTC L2, etc. The author is relatively more optimistic about the former, because it is a new asset category that has emerged in this round, and BTC L2 is actually the concept of Ethereum Rollup, which belongs to "old wine in a new bottle"

In terms of cycles, unlike previous bull market cycles where "the year after the halving is the main rise", the biggest year of the main rise in this bull market should be 2024, not 2025.

The past BTC halving years were 2012, 2016, and 2020. The current halving year is 2024.

In the first round of Bitcoin halving cycle, BTC rose by 186% in 2012, the year after the halving, and 5372% in 2013, the year after the halving. It was similar in 2017, so before the bull market cycle in 2017, BTC basically met the "halving" trend. A small increase before the halving, a big increase a year after the halving."

This pattern began to be broken in the last cycle. First, there was a considerable increase in 2019, the year before the halving (93.4%, higher than 40.9% in 2015), and then the increase was 273% in 2020, the year of the halving. , higher than the increase of 62.3% in 2021, the year after the halving.

The forward trend of this "up cycle" in this cycle is further obvious. BTC achieved a 147.3% increase in 2023, the year before the halving, continuing to exceed the increase in the year before the previous halving (2019). , and the first quarter of 2024 has not yet ended, BTC has already achieved an increase of nearly 60%.

There is a high probability that 2024 will be the main rising year of this bull market. Don’t delay and wait for the big rise in 2025. It may be a safer strategy to increase your position and seize the moment. 25 years should be the year of harvest for us to reduce our positions. .

Finally, I wish everyone a successful return from this bull market.

Create a high-quality circle

Mainly spot goods

I will share some content: Conditions as shown below:

The overall position is ≥10,000 u. If you want to join, scan the QR code below!

(The operating space for hundreds and thousands is too small. If you don’t have it, you can send a private message. You can also join if you pass the screening) Purpose: To become bigger and stronger, create greater glory and turn around in the next bull market!

文章就到这里了，我会圈子做更仔细的分析，请嗖 XL895889 我会及时回复~！

热点： AT BULL IS